Baghdad, Oct 24 (AP) – Iraq is on the brink of parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11, a pivotal moment that could shape the nation’s future amid heightened regional tensions. Although a ceasefire in Gaza has temporarily eased some conflicts, concerns persist regarding potential hostilities between Israel and Iran, Iraq’s neighbor. Notably, Iraq maintained a neutral stance during the brief Israel-Iran conflict in June.

The Iraqi government is under increasing scrutiny from Washington regarding the presence of Iran-affiliated armed groups within its borders. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who assumed office in 2022 with support from pro-Iran factions, is attempting to navigate a delicate balance between Tehran and Washington. The upcoming elections will determine if he secures a rare second term for an Iraqi premier.

A total of 7,768 candidates, comprising 2,248 women and 5,520 men, are vying for 329 parliamentary seats. Key political factions include Shiite blocs led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and cleric Ammar al-Hakim, Sunni factions led by former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadi, as well as the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

Significantly, the Sadrist Movement, led by influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is boycotting the elections. Al-Sadr’s bloc previously held the largest number of seats in the 2021 elections but withdrew amid failed government formation negotiations. In Sadr City, a banner proclaimed, “We are all boycotting upon orders from leader al-Sadr. No to America, no to Israel, no to corruption.” Additionally, the Victory Coalition, led by former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, has also announced a boycott, citing corruption in the electoral process.

Emerging reformist groups from the anti-government protests that began in October 2019 are participating but face challenges due to internal divisions and a lack of funding and political backing.

Allegations of corruption and vote-buying have surfaced, with political analyst Bassem al-Qazwini labeling these elections as “the most exploited since 2003 in terms of political money and state resources.” An anonymous campaign official claimed that nearly all candidates are engaging in vote-buying, with prices for voter cards reaching up to 300,000 Iraqi dinars (approximately $200). The Independent High Electoral Commission has pledged to ensure a fair electoral process, stating that strict measures are in place to monitor campaign spending and prevent vote-buying, with disqualification for any candidates found guilty of violations.

Political violence has marred the campaign, exemplified by the assassination of Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al-Mashhadani on October 15, who was killed by a car bomb. The First Karkh Investigative Court reported two arrests in connection with the killing, believed to be linked to electoral competition. Aisha Ghazal Al-Masari, a member of parliament from the Sovereignty Alliance, condemned the act as a “cowardly crime reminiscent of the dark days of assassinations” following the 2003 US-led invasion.

Iran-backed political parties are leveraging their military and financial influence in the elections, including groups like Kataib Hezbollah and the Sadiqoun Bloc, led by Qais al-Khazali. Although the Popular Mobilization Forces, formed to combat the Islamic State group, were officially integrated into the Iraqi military in 2016, they continue to operate with significant autonomy. Al-Sudani has stated that armed factions that transition into political entities have the constitutional right to participate in elections, asserting that no group can be excluded if they renounce violence.

The US State Department has expressed concerns, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizing the urgent need to disarm Iran-backed militias that threaten Iraq’s sovereignty and stability.

Al-Sudani is positioning himself as a pragmatic leader focused on improving public services. Recent polling indicates a growing optimism among Iraqis, with over half believing the country is moving in the right direction for the first time since 2004. However, only one prime minister, Maliki, has served more than one term since 2003. Political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari noted that the premiership’s future relies not only on election outcomes but also on political agreements and international dynamics.

Despite some positive sentiments, many Iraqis remain skeptical about the elections, citing ongoing issues with basic services. Baghdad resident Saif Ali expressed his disillusionment, questioning the effectiveness of the government in addressing persistent problems such as electricity shortages and water scarcity.